Shifting Policies and Complex Trade Agreements: The Forces Shaping Global Trade (Part 2 of 2)

This article is based on a podcast recorded August 22, 2025, featuring a conversation on the complex world of international trade with WBD (UK) Partner Peter Snaith, WBD (US) Partner Alan Enslen, and Barbourne Brook CEO/Co-Founder Rob Jenkins. From shifting tariff policies to trade agreements, this article explores the forces shaping global trade. Whether you’re a seasoned economist, business leader, or simply curious about how trade impacts your daily life, this series will bring you the insights you need to stay informed in an increasingly interconnected world.

As global trade dynamics continue to shift, the long-term effects of tariffs are becoming increasingly difficult to predict. Much like the early stages of Brexit, where initial disruptions were minimal but underlying costs quietly accumulated, the United States may be entering a similar phase with its new wave of tariffs. 

While some trade agreements are beginning to take shape, many aspects of the tariff landscape remain unsettled, leaving businesses to navigate a complex and rapidly evolving regulatory environment.

Delayed Impacts of Tariffs? 

During the early days of Brexit, Snaith said that businesses didn’t experience much in the way of initial cost impacts when moving goods between the UK and Europe. However, he noted those costs were mounting up in the background.

Could the same be true for the new U.S. tariffs? It’s inconclusive at this point. But Jenkins said, “There may be differences…. There was a soft sort of a launch to Brexit, with a trade agreement between the UK and the European Union. And whenever there’s a trade agreement, there are conditions attached.”

But while the U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with a number of countries (and some of these have been signed), many other tariff situations remain in flux.

Enslen also noted that tariffs are being announced and altered with breakneck speed. Sometimes, customs officials can’t implement those changes on the ground quite as fast, so there is a bit of a delay between an announced policy change and it actually taking effect.

However, he said that customs officials certainly can come back with a notice or a request for information if they think they missed something. 

“You might get a letter, an invitation from customs to provide them some more information. It’s not a done deal once the goods are in,” he said. “That’s why the documentation aspect is so important. You always need to be able to show what you did and, frankly, why you did it.”

Jenkins said such an approach could be a change for many just-in-time supply chains. “Your consignment is stopped at port, and you don't have all the certification and documentation lined up it isn't going to move anytime soon which causes a lot of problems down the supply chain,” he said.

Snaith also cautioned that “Businesses need to be wary that just because they haven't been checked on the way through, that doesn't mean they haven't got a liability which might bite them later on.”

Given all the recent changes and upheaval in the tariffs arena, Enslen said he expects to see companies raise a wide range of Post Summary Corrections and Protests with U.S. Customs and Border Protection in response. 

Trade Deals Taking Shape

In addition to the U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal signed in June 2025, the U.S. and the EU reached a framework for a trade agreement in late August 2025. It includes a 15 percent tariff on most EU goods entering the U.S., with exceptions for specific sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors which are capped at 15 percent. The agreement is not yet a legally binding contract, but a political one, and includes commitments from the EU to invest $600 billion in the U.S. and purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy over three years. While the deal averts a potential trade war, implementation details are still being finalized.

Enslen said, “I see this as a good first-mover advantage situation for U.S.-UK trade. We expected quick stability between the U.S. and the UK in the agreement context, but I think it’s less certain how extensively the framework agreement between the U.S. and the EU will ultimately be implemented.”

However, he said the Trump Administration’s Section 232 tariffs could either stabilize or destabilize this tenuous balance. These tariffs currently cover commodities (and some derivative items) such as steel, aluminum, copper, wood products, automobiles and trucks/buses, and will ultimately include sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, commercial aircraft and jet engines, and more.

“It’s going to be a very confusing matrix that people have to look up,” Jenkins said. He points to one client with a UK production site and a Republic of Ireland production site, both of which make the same products. Under the two different trade agreements, the tariff rate going into the U.S from the UK would be 10 percent, but from the Republic of Ireland, it would be 15 percent.

“Presumably if there's enough certainty for a period of time, then there's an opportunity there in terms of reconfiguring supply chains to play in the most favorable customs area in terms of where you're manufacturing goods,” Snaith added. The increased tariffs mean companies need to consider this calculus when looking at country of origin for imports.

Jenkins said Big Data, AI, and related technology and data analytics can help companies managing this complex, rapidly changing landscape and find the most efficient solutions in real time.

Key Takeaways

1. Tariff Impacts May Be Delayed but Significant. Just as Brexit initially showed minimal disruption before hidden costs emerged, U.S. tariffs may follow a similar pattern—where the full financial and logistical impact becomes clear only over time.
2. Trade Agreements Are Still Evolving. While the U.S. has reached a framework agreement with the EU, many tariff-related negotiations remain unsettled. This uncertainty complicates planning for businesses reliant on international supply chains.
3. Customs Enforcement Is Catching Up. Rapid changes in tariff policies can outpace customs enforcement, leading to delays in implementation. However, businesses may still face retroactive scrutiny, making thorough documentation essential.
4. Supply Chains Must Adapt Quickly. Tariffs and documentation requirements can disrupt just-in-time supply chains. Companies may need to reconfigure operations based on country-of-origin advantages and shifting trade rules.
5. Technology Is Key to Navigating Complexity. Tools like Big Data and AI are increasingly vital for managing the fast-changing tariff landscape, helping businesses optimize decisions and remain compliant in real time.

Click here to listen to the podcast episode that corresponds with this article.