Shifting Policies and Complex Trade Agreements: The Forces Shaping Global Trade (Part 1 of 2)

This article is based on a podcast recorded August 22, 2025, featuring a conversation on the complex world of international trade with WBD (UK) Partner Peter Snaith, WBD (US) Partner Alan Enslen, and Barbourne Brook CEO/Co-Founder Rob Jenkins. From shifting tariff policies to trade agreements, this article explores the forces shaping global trade. Whether you’re a seasoned economist, business leader, or simply curious about how trade impacts your daily life, this series will bring you the insights you need to stay informed in an increasingly interconnected world.

Global trade is in a state of flux, shaped by shifting policies, complex trade agreements, and an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape. From the rapid implementation of tariffs to the ripple effects of Chinese overcapacity, this discussion unpacks the challenges and opportunities businesses face in navigating today’s volatile trade environment. 

Big Picture Themes in Trade and Tariffs

Volatility and uncertainty are the watchwords of the day. Global businesses now face rapid changes in tariffs and trade policies, with decisions now happening in days or hours instead of months. Events like Brexit, COVID-19, and U.S. tariff policies under the Trump administration have created confusion and challenges for businesses around the world.

“There's a lot in this space which is causing quite a lot of confusion and pain with the people we talk to,” Jenkins said.

Enslen noted that tariff agreements often mark the beginning of new negotiations rather than providing finality. The result is ongoing confusion regarding U.S. trade and tariff policy for many companies.

“It's caused a lot of people to stay on the sidelines, which you can't do forever,” he said.

Chinese overcapacity is another issue impacting companies on a global level. New U.S. tariffs aim to address Chinese overproduction, but this creates ripple effects in global markets. Enslen likens this to “squeezing a balloon”—pressure in one area causes disruptions elsewhere. If the U.S. reduces imports from China, those goods are going to flow to other markets, and that will impact international supply chains, Enslen said.

Types of Tariffs

“There's a tendency for people to lump all tariffs together, but they're not created equally,” Snaith said.

International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Tariffs are in the news, because they can be quickly implemented by Executive Order. One type of IEEPA tariff targets specific issues like fentanyl trade or immigration crises. Currently, these tariffs primarily impact Canada, Mexico and China. 

Reciprocal tariffs are the other prong of IEEPA, and are the ones that get the lion’s share of the attention. Initially, these tariffs were based on reciprocity, but now, they serve as negotiating tools to lead to long-term trade agreements. These tariffs can shift overnight, so companies need to watch them closely.

Section 232 Tariffs focus on national security, targeting sectors like steel and aluminum, with more predictable but complex rules. These require an extensive investigation by the U.S. Commerce Department before any tariffs are assessed.

“What I see really making companies frustrated is trying to determine how to even calculate the tariff for a Section 232 derivative product,” Enslen said. “It’s a complex arrangement.”

Snaith noted that it is also important to realize that multiple tariffs can apply to the same product, compounding costs.

Opportunities for Businesses in an Uncertain Environment

Many businesses leave money on the table by not optimizing tariff classifications, leveraging free trade agreements, or claiming duty drawbacks.

“We see millions of pounds, or dollars in the U.S. sense, worth of unnecessarily paid duties,” Jenkins said. “That could be for lots of different reasons. It could be that there's a lack of understanding of the core elements that make up the customer’s duty costs, such as tariff classification, the origin of products, what has to be included or should be excluded from the value. There's a lot of confusion around that. It could be because people aren't using all the free trade agreements out there. It's becoming a bit of a tangled web.” 

He noted that companies can apply for customs duty reclaims going back three years in the UK and European Union and five years in the U.S. This step potentially can recover significant amounts of money.

Companies also should consider tactical adjustments to better adapt to the current trade and tariff environment. 

Short-term actions like reclassifying products, exploring duty reliefs, or understanding rules of origin can yield quick wins. For example, changing a product's origin through additional processing can reduce tariffs significantly. Jenkins said that a product subject to a 30 to 50 percent U.S. tariff if it came from Vietnam, for instance, would only face a 10 percent tariff if the country of origin could be changed to the UK. 

“They need to understand the rules, but there's plenty of planning people can do around that,” he said. This could mean shifting where research and development is done—it doesn’t necessarily require a change in manufacturing location, Jenkins said.

“Country of origin is now even more important than ever,” Enslen said.

Snaith said “global supply chain hygiene” is another key consideration that can help businesses save money and improve efficiency. 

The panelists recommended analyzing supply chains continuously to anticipate disruptions and optimize trade routes. Understanding the full journey of a product, from raw materials to final assembly, is critical to managing costs and risks. Companies should implement a continual rolling analysis to accurately determine where these effects are happening within their supply chains.

While the trade landscape remains volatile, businesses can take proactive steps to mitigate risks and uncover opportunities. By leveraging technology, optimizing supply chains, and staying informed, companies can navigate the complexities of tariffs and trade more effectively.

Key Takeaways

1. Review Tariff Classifications: Ensure harmonized tariff system (HTS) codes are accurate and up-to-date.
2. Reassess Country of Origin: Determine if shifting production or inputs can lower tariff rates.
3. Engage in Policy Advocacy: Work with officials to influence tariff scopes and exemptions.
4. Plan for Long-Term Stability: Build resilient supply chains by diversifying suppliers and understanding global trade dynamics.
5. Don’t shy away from doing business in the U.S.: The benefits from engaging n the U.S. market far outweigh the challenges. Global companies can navigate trade and tariff issues with the right planning and attention to detail.

Click here to listen to the podcast episode that corresponds with this article.